🗞️ The humanitarian crisis continues to deepen in Catatumbo, in the north-east of Colombia.
Ten days after violence erupted in the area, there are now 48,000 people displaced and around 80 people murdered. 24,000 people are confined to their homes by the violence, according to the Ministry of Defence.
This is the largest mass displacement in at least 30 years; around half of those displaced are now in the city of Cúcuta, Norte de Santander.
The army has deployed a thousand soldiers to the area in attempts to regain control, amid ongoing clashes between the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and the 33rd Front of the Estado Mayor de los Bloques y Frente (EMBF) – a faction of the FARC dissidence led by alias ‘Calarcá.’ The latter group split from the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) last year.
Videos emerged on social media this week showing commanders of the 33rd Front of the EMBF, alias ‘John Mechas’ and alias ‘Richard’, vowing not to attack the civil population. It has also been reported that the former reached out to President Gustavo Petro seeking ‘a way to overcome this tragedy.’
In the midst of this humanitarian and security crisis, however, Petro has been on an official visit to Haiti.
The ELN issued a statement this Monday morning saying they will neither negotiate nor surrender. According to the country’s ombudsman, the group are directly attacking the civilian population: some reports suggest ELN combatants are going house to house, seeking out supposed collaborators with their enemies.
Following the government’s suspension of peace talks with the group last week, the Attorney General’s Office has reactivated arrest warrants for 31 ELN commanders. The warrants had been suspended for almost two years as part of Petro’s ‘Total Peace’ initiative. The government has announced rewards of up to three billion pesos for information leading to arrests.
President Gustavo Petro has declared a state of internal commotion - a state of emergency that allows expedited mobilisation of resources and public order measures. It will be in place for 90 days, and alters the terms of regional spending and military intelligence; special protection programmes have also been announced.
Minister of Finance Diego Guevara announced that, based on that decree of internal commotion, VAT would be applied to digital gambling in order raise funds to address the emergency.
The government has also stepped up demobilisation programmes in the area, even distributing leaflets from helicopters. More than a hundred combatants have now demobilised, 20% of whom are minors.
Around 400 minors were recruited last year - more than half of whom belonged to indigenous groups - an increase of 122% compared to 2023, according to new figures from the Ombudsman.
Due to the cross-border nature of the ELN’s activities, Colombia has also entered into talks with Venezuela to develop a security plan: the defence ministers of the two countries met last week.
Though Venezuela claims not to harbour armed groups, there have long been accusations of permissiveness and even collaboration with the ELN on the part of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. At least 80 armed ELN combatants passed through Venezuelan territory before recent attacks in Catatumbo, according to a recently-leaked military intelligence report.
Also this week, the EMC faction commanded by alias ‘Iván Mordisco’ has been in clashes with the EMBF in the departments of Meta and Guaviare, as well as attacking a military base in the southwestern department of Cauca.
It is feared that the outbreak of conflict in Catatumbo - as well as conflict between former-factions of the EMC - could destabilise other regions and unleash other conflicts in the country.
🗞️ Colombia has been left reeling by a divisive 20-hour crisis in diplomatic relations with the United States. The two countries narrowly averted a trade war, as President Donald Trump sought to make an example of Colombia for resisting deportation flights.
The crisis was triggered by Petro’s decision to turn away two US military planes arriving in Bogotá, carrying 160 Colombian deportees.
Although the agreement to accept US military flights deporting migrants dates back years, Petro objected to the conditions in which deportees were transported, including use of handcuffs, saying that ‘a migrant is not a criminal and must be treated with the dignity that every human being deserves.’
Similar objections to the treatment of deportees have been made in recent days by both Mexico and Brazil, as Trump ramps up deportations as part of his crackdown on migration.
Following Petro’s comments, Trump announced that the flights contained ‘illegal criminals,’ calling Petro a ‘socialist’ and accusing Colombia of ‘jeopardising US national security.’ A public exchange of threats and insults between two Presidents continued throughout Sunday, largely via social media.
Trump then threatened 25% tariffs on Colombian goods, to be later raised to 50%, with increased customs requirements, as well as visa revocations for Colombian government officials and a freeze on visa processing for all Colombians.
In response, Petro announced a 25% increase in tariffs on goods from the US, and warned that the 16,000 US migrants with irregular migratory status in Colombia should legalise their situation.
The US is Colombia’s largest trading partner, with exports including coffee, cut flowers, and crude oil. Colombia sells 27% of its exports in the United States, and buys 25% of its imports from that country, according to the National Department of Statistics (DANE). US exports to Colombia constitute less than 1% of its exports.
After a day of back and forth between the two presidents via X (formerly Twitter), with diplomats and ministers seeking solutions behind the scenes, the Colombian government consented to accept the planes of returnees, thus avoiding the threatened sanctions.
On Sunday night, Colombia’s foreign minister Luis Gilberto Murillo announced that they had ‘overcome the impasse’, while the White House announced, "Today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again.” Murillo will go to the US to meet with members Trump’s administration this week.
Representatives of the US government have said that the sanctions with which Colombia was threatened are a message to other countries which might not accept deportation flights. In recent weeks, Trump has also threatened trade tariffs on various countries, including Canada, Mexico, and China – as well as the European Union.
Latin American leaders are to attend an emergency summit this Thursday to discuss a joint response to Trump’s mass deportations. The UN, meanwhile, commented that ‘migrants and refugees must be treated with dignity and their rights must be respected. Countries have a right to control their borders and decide their policies, but there are standards to be met.’
🗞️ Last Friday, The US Agency for International Development suspended all international projects, with a freeze on current contracts and grants. The only exceptions are Israel and Egypt. All contracts will be reviewed over the next three months to ensure they are in line with the new government’s foreign policy objectives.
The US provides about 200 million USD per year to Colombia via projects regarding conflict, rural development, migration, and climate.
🗞️ 15,000 people may be affected by increased activity within the Puracé Volcano, which Colombia’s geological service has placed on yellow alert. Both the Puracé and Curiquingue volcanos - both part of the Coconucos volcanic chain in Cauca - are emitting gas and ash, damaging crops and contaminating rivers. Cracks and cavities have also been detected in the craters.
The threat is currently low for those in nearby villages, but instructions have been issued not to approach the craters. Ongoing volcanic activity is being closely monitored.
🗞️ Last year, Colombia broke its own record for tourism, according to new figures from the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Tourism. In 2024, 6.7 million visitors came from abroad – an 8.5% increase from 2023.
Among foreigners, Americans are the most common visitors, accounting for one quarter of international arrivals; unusually for foreign visitors, more Americans arrive in Medellín than in Bogotá.
The country with the second highest number of visitors to Colombia was Mexico with 370,000 visitors, followed by Ecuador with 350,000.
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